Sunday, July 21, 2013

I'll bet you $1 million you'll live until you're 100 years old

This bet is not valid for anyone who is already above the age of 60 or left-handed

Seriously though.  I will bet you a million bucks that barring you take your own life, or die in a drone strike, you will live to be 100.  In case you are wondering, the current American life expectancy is 79 years -- about 76 years for men and 81 years for women.  By the way, left-handed people supposedly have an average life expectancy about 9 years shorter.

Why would I make such a bet? First, I am convinced that by the time most of us are 100 years old $1 million will not be such a great sum. Extrapolating another 70 years of inflation at 5% and we get about $32,000 in today's greenbacks. 

More importantly, I think life expectancy is going to shoot up. If we believe in exponential growth we cannot discredit the possibility that advancements in medicine and technology can make lifespan go parabolic.

Here is the wiki timeline of medicine and medical technology (link):

Around 1900:  The X-ray gets invented as does aspirin...

50 years later we are using chemotherapy to fight cancer and curing polio...

25 years later we get insulin pumps, LASIK surgery, CT scans...

A few decades more and we have cracked DNA sequencing, created artificial muscles and today there are firms working on 3D bio-printing, which is like printing a new liver after you spend your life drinking bourbon...nice!!! (check out ticker: ONVO...the stock is up about 300% in the past 7 months)

It took us 75 years to go from X-rays to CT scans but only 10 years to go from robotic surgeries to bionic limbs controlled by brain waves. 

Think about what will happen in the next 50-100 years. It is going to be bigger than we can imagine.

The aide of technology and innovation in the medical field will result in the ability to keep our bodies around a lot longer.  Whether you end up looking like RoboCop or Tony Stark you better find something fun to do with all that time you have left on the clock.        


  1. I'll take the bet, but I want it adjusted for inflation... deal?

  2. Unfortunately that would be far too much risk :)