Livin' off the Fatta the Land

If you take a look at the right hand side of this blog you will notice a few sites that I like to follow.  One of them is Sovereignman.com (introduced to me by @Shamrock5000).  Yesterday, Sovereignman posted a link to a Stansberry Research video that sounded like a doomsday "public service announcement."  The video took about an hour to get through and contains important information about the devaluation of the dollar, piling US government debt, and a lengthy teaser advertisement for you to become a Stansberry client (boring).  If you want to take an hour to watch this click here (LINK TO VIDEO), or you can just keep reading and I will sum it up for you.  

The main point is that the US has no way out of its deficit spending and federal debt load - the interest payments on the debt will become too great, thus, the liabilities will grow in such a way that the only solution is for the dollar to be devalued even further (it fell 8% in 2010).  What does devalued really mean?  In a nutshell: your savings will be worth less because the prices of goods and services will become much much higher in the future (see my post below on "The Frog").  Stansberry suggests we can take action to protect ourselves from such events by doing some or all of the following:

-Own physical gold (buy a gold coin or buy stock in PHYS)
-Own physical silver (buy a silver coin or buy stock in PSLV)
-Have access to a rural place (call Aunt Ida on the farm and tell her you have dibs on the extra bedroom)
-Own money in a foreign currency outside the US (this is trickier)
-Own stored food in your basement (twinkies can withstand nuclear holocaust)
-Own land

I want to focus on the last one for a second.  Land.  Maybe Lenny and George from Of Mice and Men had the right idea? I recently contacted a land broker because I am curious about the idea of owning land as a hedge to the aforementioned travesty that some the doomsayers are predicting.  The investment properties of owning land appear to be multifaceted.  First, if real assets appreciate (real assets meaning things you can touch, live on, or drop on your foot and they hurt) due to inflation, then the value of the land should rise.  Second, if you are growing crops on this land and the prices of those crops rise, you stand to gain by selling those crops to the people without land (this can also be achieved by leasing parts of the land to farmers).  Third, you can eat the food grown on the land so the "personal survival" box is checked as well.  If you think about alternative investments, few cover all of these bases.  Sure you can buy food with gold and silver but what happens when you eat all your food and spend all of your gold?  Land appears to be the better hedge.   

Rather than go out and borrow money to buy a massive tract of land, I think the idea of a land collective makes total sense - pool a group of people together to buy a piece of land. There really is power in numbers here.  If you ever NEED this land (and I say this because clearly we all see that the grocery stores are still fully functional and our money still works), you have a group of people that will be farming it with you and protecting it with you.  I will take it a step further.  You want land that has access to freshwater. You need water to grow food no?  If you live in Michigan you are in a great position because you are surrounded by the equivalent of a fresh water ocean.    

I am not saying commit your entire life savings to an idea like this but why not spend 5% of it on a share of farmland that is within 2-3 hours drive from your house.  This should not break the bank.  Others are jumping on the land grab as well.  George Bush just bought 100k acres in South America.  John Malone (telecom magnate) bought an $83million piece of land in New Mexico at around $300/acre.  Bill Gates bought a 500 acre ranch in Wyoming.  Of course these are not small purchases and they have the luxury of private jet escape pods to get them to wherever they need to go, but you can see that the "smart" money is involved in this.

I am curious what people think about this topic.  It is seldom talked about and is clearly not as sexy as investing in AAPL or some high yield bond fund.  But if you were to commit some of the money going into your IRA or 401k (which the government may have some influence on in the near future) to something like this, I think you get closer to whatever a "well rounded investment portfolio" should look like.  If anyone is interested in exploring some kind of land collective/partnership/mutual fund, please let me know.  We already have a few people on board.  Something to ponder for 2011.    

Take a Splice out of Life

For nearly a decade I was a deer stuck staring into headlights, frozen by the barrage of information coming at me from every corner of Wall St (for the record: none of it was inside information).  The financial software applications that occupied my desktop real estate continuously vomited mountains of information, giving me little time to learn about how the rest of the world was being launched into cyberspace.  Having spent a few months away from the streaming stock quotes, bloomberg terminals, and flickering bid-offers, I have discovered just how powerful (and critical) technology has become to businesses and the everyday user. 

It is shocking to see how much influence websites and apps have in changing the way we communicate, make buying decisions, entertain ourselves, educate our children, etc.  Entirely new industries are emerging overnight and staying on top of the countless new outlets is an arduous task to say the least.  Take Groupon for example.  Today, there are apparently some 500 Groupon copycat sites globally and if you gave me a penny for every business I have heard or read about in the past month that aims to be "the Groupon of (INSERT PRODUCT OR SERVICE HERE)," I would have a dollar.  The internet is growing and changing faster than we are able to process it because the content providers are no longer the cartel of tightly knit media elite...the new content providers are (get ready for it).......us!!  And there are a helluva lot more of you and I than there are Rupert Murdoch, Richard Branson, Sumner Redstone et al.   

"User generated content" or "consumer generated media" or whatever you want to call the process of freely posting information on the internet, is changing the way the world interacts as we speak.  It seemed like everyone watched "60 Minutes" with Mark Zuckerberg a couple weeks ago but I gather that few went online to catch "60 Minutes: Overtime" when Lesley Stahl interviewed Chris Cox, Facebook's head of product development. 

I thought this short interview was really thought provoking and it validates why websites like facebook, twitter, groupon, four square, quora, and kiva are in a position to give the power back to the people.  Content that is created by us (particularly by those within our network...i.e. anyone's email address we have) may be richer than content provided by the experts (who we no longer trust?).

The blending of technology and user generated content will create massive opportunity to "splice":  businesses must fuse themselves to the growing stream of information we (as in the collective we) are posting online.  This will allow business to become more competitive, understand their customers, identify new trends early on, innovate, get instant feedback, and the list goes on and on.  I am curious what people think about this short interview.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7120112n

For the Unemployed Turning Entrepreneur

A good friend sent me an article he pulled out of Worth magazine the other day.  The article summarized the 10 Rules of Successful Entrepreneurship from Bill Murphy Jr.'s new book The Intelligent Entrepreneur.  I enjoyed the piece and thought it would be worthwhile to share.  I am finding a high correlation between articles about how difficult the job market is and new startup business ventures friends and former colleagues are embarking on.  In addition, there are tons of talented "out-of-work" people who are teaming up to start businesses.  These folks gave up looking for the next mindless job... they are going out and creating exciting new careers.  

It is great to talk with enterprising people who are optimistic about the prospects of growth both in the developed and emerging worlds.  Even in Michigan (despite what you may read in the dreaded papers) at a recent entrepreneur's conference held in Dearborn, the halls were buzzing about alternative energy, life sciences, social media, mobile marketing strategies, etc.  I did not even hear the word "automotive" mentioned once.  Who says Detroit cannot reinvent itself?

For those of you who are considering taking the plunge into one of the many entrepreneurial ecosystems, here are the 10 rules that came from Bill Murphy's research and are flushed out in his book (which I am definitely going to buy):

1.)  Successful entrepreneurs commit to entrepreneurship rather than to a specific business.

2.)  Successful entrepreneurs look for market opportunities before creating business solutions.

3.)  Successful entrepreneurs focus on innovation and scale.

4.)  Successful entrepreneurs pick founding teams with a history of working well together.

5.)  Successful entrepreneurs realize that they play the most important role.

6.)  Successful entrepreneurs manage risk.

7.)  Successful entrepreneurs commit themselves to learning management skills.

8.)  Successful entrepreneurs learn to sell.

9.)  Successful entrepreneurs redefine failure.

10.) Successful entrepreneurs aren't in it just for the money.

A Frog Inquires: "is it hot in here or is it just me?"

The old adage says that if you throw a frog in boiling water he will quickly jump out. But if you place the frog in cold water and raise the heat ever so slightly to boiling, he will lay still and cook to death.  Replace the frog with “the American taxpayer” and make the water temperature the “level of prices” and you have a metaphor for the current US monetary policy.  It would most certainly not be in the best interests of politicians, or central bankers alike, to turn the inflation switch on overnight.  That would result in nothing short of riots.  In light of that, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the only way out from under the mountainous pile of government debt is through moderate price inflation and erosion of purchasing power over time.  The other alternatives would result in a US government default or debt restructuring and we can be sure that no President, Democrat or Republican, would concede to that under his or her watch.

Some economists will contest claims of higher price levels and lower purchasing power with the sagging level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) relative to historical inflationary periods.  Contrary to some beliefs, one can argue that CPI is a manufactured index that is used as a benchmark for keeping wages, benefits, and cost of living indices in check, and fails to depict an accurate basket of goods.  While deflationists are constantly pointing toward the multitude of retail discounts and dollar menu offerings they come across during trips to the mall, they fail to mention rising prices in things like beverages, clothing, pharmaceutical drugs, utilities, transportation, college tuition, and most importantly, inputs like metals (hard commodities) and agriculture (soft commodities).

There appears to be a disconnect between where actual commodity prices are going, and where consumers expect the prices of goods made from these commodities are going.  Is it reasonable to think that the things we need to buy (food, clothes, cars, etc.) will miraculously become cheaper even though the inputs used to produce them are skyrocketing?  NO!  Some simple facts: corn is up 43% this year, soybeans are up 30%, wheat is up 34%, coffee is up 52%, cotton is up 100%.  Food and clothes will become more expensive unless the labor to make these items becomes much cheaper. Fortunately, East Asia is already under pressure to improve working conditions so do not expect labor to become less costly.  On the metal front: copper is up 18% year-to-date, silver is up 62%, platinum is up 20%, palladium is up 77%, and gold is up 28%.  ‘Nuff said? 

The laymen frequently combat these statistics with the “wealth” they are accumulating in their stock portfolios and retirement accounts.  “If the stock market is up, my portfolio rises, and I am getting richer,” they quip. It appears as if American taxpayers forget that they will lose if the dollar wins the race to zero.  After applauding the recent strong performance in the stock market, most Americans show no angst from the 13% decline in the dollar over the past 4 months.  “So we won’t go to Europe for vacation this year!” some might crack.  Unfortunately it is not that simple.  The US operates at a trade deficit and we consume many goods from other countries so cutting out vacations abroad will only alleviate part of the pain caused by the weaker purchasing power of the dollar.

To my fellow frogs I fear we must be realistic and face the facts that life will become more expensive. It could get a lot pricier should the Government and the Fed not perfectly thread the needle of igniting an economic recovery while giving our foreign lenders some semblance of confidence in the dollar.  We should prepare for higher prices domestically or find a way to denominate our assets in other stores of value to avoid getting cooked (buy some land or some Chinese yuan…or take my grandpa’s advice and buy 4 boxes of cereal before the price goes up!).

Vegas Musings

Vegas is hilarious to me.  I think it is pretty awesome that people come from all over the world to experience all of the different things Vegas has to offer.  I was in Vegas last weekend visiting friends and doing some due diligence on a few casino stocks I own (hat tip J and Z) and I noticed some items worth sharing:

1.)  Cab drivers are giving stock tips again? I was surprised to be questioned by my cab driver why I owned WYNN (traded on Nasdaq) when the better play, in his expert opinion, was the WYNN Macau stock that trades in Hong Kong (ticker: 1128.hk).  When cab drivers are giving away investment tips I tend to get nervous.

2.)  Vegas is still hurting.  Steve Wynn said things will not get much worse but you can tell they are reaching to squeeze every ounce from the public.  I was annoyed to find out that I could not get Wi-Fi in my room unless I paid the resort fee of $30 a day.  That was not as bad as the $1.50 extra charge for bleu cheese olives in my martini.  Lastly, table service at the club must be down a good amount.  I got far too many cordial texts from the VIP guy at the WYNN asking me when will I arrive at the club.  Back in the bull market, they used to drop your reservation if you did not show by midnight.  Now they text you until 2 a.m. begging for your business.

3.)  People are really serious about risks from the 'Death Ray' at the new Vdara hotel.  If you are not familiar, the sun's reflection off the south face of the hotel is so strong that "if you're at the hotel's swimming pool at the wrong time of day -- it can singe your hair and melt your plastic drink cups and shopping bags."  Check out one artist's rendering of the giant sized "ant and the microscope" catastrophe at the Vdara below.  This is pure genius:

4.)  The slot machine industry is mocking its own customers by putting new ridiculous games on casino floors.  I came across a slot machine at the Palazzo that I had to take a quick snap of.  Below, I compare a traditional slot machine (on the left) to one of the new "win on multiple lines" games (on the right).  Are you kidding me?  It is bad enough that people don't have to use the hand crank anymore but now they get to follow not 1 or 2 more lines....but 100 lines! 

Here's to the people that plug into slot machines until they have to be woken by security...without you gentle folks, the casino's would be forced to charge Angelo Mozilo and the other sunbathers extra, when exposing them to magnified gamma rays like those at the Vdara. 

A Monetary Walk of Shame

Photo: PacificCoastNewsOnline.com

Preceding this week’s highly anticipated midterm elections and two-day Federal Reserve meeting, PIMCO'S Bill Gross published his monthly investment outlook containing some shift in sentiment toward the very system that he advocated just over a year ago.  Gross, PIMCO'S longtime Co-chief investment officer, has long been lauded as the “Bond King” and stands at the rarified investment pulpit with the likes of Warren Buffett, Jack Bogle, and Benjamin Graham.  His investment outlooks are considered must-reads for anyone in financial services,  as they provide insight into what the investment elite are pondering.   In this piece entitled “Run, Turkey, Run,” (LINK) Gross predicts that the upcoming Fed meeting: “will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment.”

Is Gross crafting PIMCO'S own obituary with a statement like this or does this signify PIMCO’s entrance into the equity world as he surrenders to fewer return opportunities in the bond market?  Or is the “Oracle of Orange County” taking the first step in a monetary walk of shame, conceding that policies which made sense before have become runaway fiat freight trains that he jubilantly rode?

While Gross has always appeared to have an anti-big-government bend to his commentaries, he was not afraid to partner with the government and even imitate the Fed in 2009 when the United States was peering into the economic abyss. In his January 2009 outlook he wrote, “PIMCO’s view is simple: shake hands with the government; make them your partner by acknowledging that their checkbook represents the largest and most potent source of buying power in 2009 and beyond...For now, our Ponzi-style economy and its policy remedies encourage bond investors to mimic Uncle Sam and its global compatriots. Buy what they buy, but get there first.” (LINK) At the time, it was perfectly acceptable to run the printing press in support of our great nation as managers were desperately seeking refuge from the crisis of 2008.  (In other words, "it seemed like a good idea at the time but i do remember having a few too many drinks.") 

In his February 2009 outlook, Gross congratulated the Fed and showed optimism towards the unprecedented efforts at a time when markets were particularly fragile.  He applauded the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and the Fed’s purchase program for agency backed mortgages opining that these two programs “have been the major policy successes to date…because they have supported and increased asset prices whose decline has been the major deflationary thrust behind the real economy. Stop asset prices from going down and with a 12-month lag, unemployment will stop going up, and President Obama’s targeted three million new jobs will have a fighting chance of being achieved” (LINK).

Today, Gross feels that the Fed and government which he admittedly partnered with in 2009 have gone too far.  In his most recent note he says, “Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme…Now, however, it seems the Fed has taken Charles Ponzi one step further.”  Even though the idea that developed nation’s public debt being a Ponzi scheme is not new, Gross has reached his own proverbial tipping point (in other words Gross has been sleeping with the enemy).

  

So why the sudden change of heart? When did we transform from the collective supporting of asset prices to what he now calls a “Sammy Scheme” (Uncle Sam’s version of a Ponzi scheme that has been orchestrated by politicians and subsequently enabled by the voters that elected them)?  Maybe this is the way it always was and no one wanted to admit it?  Gross is coming to grips with the reality that the Federal Reserve, despite its alleged independence, is a highly politicized tool used not only to support asset prices and provide liquidity, but fuel deficits, and rather large ones at that.  I would not want to wake up and rollover to that realization either. 

Exit the "Knowledge Economy"...Enter the "Creative Economy"

I recently heard Gary Hamel speak at the Ross School of Business (University of Michigan) in Ann Arbor.  I had never heard of Gary before walking into the auditorium, and after listening to him for 45 minutes, I wanted to know everything about him.  This guy is good! (http://www.garyhamel.com/)

I took some interesting notes during his talk.  Gary is an expert corporate strategist who specializes in the topic of management, specifically how to "reinvent" management.  The point that resonated most with me was a slide he posted called "Gary's Hierarchy:"

Essentially, Gary argues that intelligence is pretty much par for the course in today's economy and the real way to differentiate is through creative ability.  You can outsource all of the technical skills we were told would take us deep into the 21st century (programming, engineering, finance, etc.).  He believes that business is more turbulent today and companies are not able to mitigate the turbulence fast enough.  Modern management styles are no longer modern (most taught management styles are from the beginning of the 20th century). Couple this with a faster business cycle and you too may see the need for more agility and creativity from leadership.

Listening to Gary, I immediately took pity on the millions of Americans who are making one of the various paths through higher education their own.  It seems like an all too common solution for the current recession we are in is to go back to school...and universities know this so school is not getting cheaper anytime soon.  Is all of the money spent on tuition to get a certificate and get "smart" worth it when the more applicable skills come from unlocking creative ability?